I recently spoke at the American Association of Political Consultants annual conference in Puerto Rico (h/t Keith Norman @ Premion). The topic of my talk was the political video advertising market heading into the midterm elections of 2022.
Below is a summary of a few key points. The PDF presentation is available for a deeper dive.
Big question #1: How large is the political video ad market expected to be in 2022?
Quick answer: $8.8B
Big question #2: How does 2022 compare to past election cycles?
2022 vs. 2018 – ()
2022 vs. 2020 – ↓ (↓)
≈ of the entire U.S. video ad market
≈ of all video ad growth is from politics
Worth your time: Midterm Moolah: TV Stations Cash in on Primary Season
Big question #3: What is the breakdown between screen types across linear and digital video?
Local broadcast TV –
Connected TV (CTV) –
Local cable TV –
Social video –
Digital share (including CTV) of political video ad spend:
1) 2014 – 6%
2) 2016 – 12%
3) 2018 – 19%
4) 2020 – 27%
5) 2022P – 34%
Big question #4: Why is reaching swing voters with video so hard?
Challenge #1: The actual audience (swing voters) consumes video content differently than our primary demo (35+).
Average age of audience:
1) 2022 swing voter – 49
2) Average adult – 51
3) 35+ demo – 58
Why this matters: Most TV advertising in politics is still planned/measured against a 35+ demo.
Challenge #2: Using a traditional demo for planning/measurement leads us to miss 32% of our target audience, while 75% of the demo is not our target.
Challenge #3: Local video ad pricing and media consumption are different by market, leading to variance in eCPMs for the same audience.
Big question #5: What is the solution?
Quick answer: Planning, activation, and measurement against audiences at the local level. Each market should have a unique/allocation and plan.
Big question #6: Who will win the battle for CTV dollars?
Quick answer: In the fight for CTV ad dollars, the group which adopts cross-screen planning, activation, and measurement will have an advantage.