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State of the Screens

3 Video Advertising Predictions for 2024

By January 2, 2024January 8th, 2024No Comments

Grading our 2023 Predictions

 2023 prediction #1: Reach for local advertisers is becoming a BIG problem.

Verdict: For the 2024 presidential election, linear TV reach for Republican primary voters is below 50% in early states like Iowa.

More: The Battle for Iowa

2023 prediction #2: Growth in user-generated content (video specifically) will begin eating into total TV time.

Verdict: The share of user-generated content in total video time grew to 39%, but ad dollars lagged.  I expect that to change in a big way as creators such as MrBeast build billion-dollar brands on non-linear platforms (YouTube, etc.).

More: Are Creators Building the Next Hollywood?

2023 prediction #3: Streaming will eat into linear share of total TV time faster than people think.

Verdict: Time spent with linear TV declined 8% YoY, driven by cable losing 11%.  Cable’s market share will continue to erode, but broadcast may fare better due to sports.

Three predictions for video advertising in 2024

Past predictions: 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020

2024 prediction #1: Next year will see the rise of the streaming-first TV ad buyer.

How it will happen: 30% of consumers watch 84% of linear TV ad impressions.  They are extremely cost-effective to reach with linear TV ads.  There is now an equally large portion of consumers where streaming is more cost-effective for reach than linear TV.  Watch for advertisers to use streaming as the primary mechanism for reach and linear as a secondary.

2024 prediction #2: Political will provide a testing ground for cutting-edge targeting, planning, and measurement.

How it will happen: The 2024 election will be an arms race for data and analytics.  Roughly 31M registered voters will be the target of $11B in advertising ($355/target), with 80% coming over 3 months.  Targeting, planning, and measurement to maximize reach/frequency to these targeted voters will be a top priority for both Democrats and Republicans.


More: 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads

2024 prediction #3: Many advertisers will reach a higher share of their targets through streaming TV vs. linear TV.  By 2025, this will be the case for the majority of advertisers.

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach
2) 2026 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent
3) 2028 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend
4) 2030 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions


More: The Streaming Decade in Four Steps

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.