Grading our 2023 Predictions
2023 prediction #1: Reach for local advertisers is becoming a BIG problem.
Verdict: For the 2024 presidential election, linear TV reach for Republican primary voters is below 50% in early states like Iowa.
More: The Battle for Iowa
2023 prediction #2: Growth in user-generated content (video specifically) will begin eating into total TV time.
Verdict: The share of user-generated content in total video time grew to 39%, but ad dollars lagged. I expect that to change in a big way as creators such as MrBeast build billion-dollar brands on non-linear platforms (YouTube, etc.).
More: Are Creators Building the Next Hollywood?
2023 prediction #3: Streaming will eat into linear share of total TV time faster than people think.
Verdict: Time spent with linear TV declined 8% YoY, driven by cable losing 11%. Cable’s market share will continue to erode, but broadcast may fare better due to sports.
Three predictions for video advertising in 2024
Past predictions: 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020
2024 prediction #1: Next year will see the rise of the streaming-first TV ad buyer.
How it will happen: 30% of consumers watch 84% of linear TV ad impressions. They are extremely cost-effective to reach with linear TV ads. There is now an equally large portion of consumers where streaming is more cost-effective for reach than linear TV. Watch for advertisers to use streaming as the primary mechanism for reach and linear as a secondary.
2024 prediction #2: Political will provide a testing ground for cutting-edge targeting, planning, and measurement.
How it will happen: The 2024 election will be an arms race for data and analytics. Roughly 31M registered voters will be the target of $11B in advertising ($355/target), with 80% coming over 3 months. Targeting, planning, and measurement to maximize reach/frequency to these targeted voters will be a top priority for both Democrats and Republicans.
More: 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads
2024 prediction #3: Many advertisers will reach a higher share of their targets through streaming TV vs. linear TV. By 2025, this will be the case for the majority of advertisers.
The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach
2) 2026 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent
3) 2028 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend
4) 2030 – Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions
