Previous NFL previews: 2023 | 2022
Ten big questions re: NFL on TV:
1) How many people watch NFL games?
2) How will the presidential election impact viewership?
3) Which teams draw the most viewers?
4) Which NFL markets deliver the highest ratings?
5) How important is NFL football to the TV networks?
6) How many ads run during an NFL game?
7) How many ads will the average NFL fan see in a year?
8) Which types of companies advertise during NFL games?
9) How valuable are NFL teams?
10) How do NFL teams make money?
Big question #1: How many people watch NFL games?
NFL average regular season viewership (YoY change) according to Sportico:
1) 2014 – 17.6M (↑ 1%)
2) 2015 – 18.1M (↑ 3%)
3) 2016 – 16.5M (↓ 9%)
4) 2017 – 15.0M (↓ 9%)
5) 2018 – 15.8M (↑ 5%)
6) 2019 – 16.5M (↑ 5%)
7) 2020 – 15.6M (↓ 5%)
8) 2021 – 17.1M (↑ 10%)
9) 2022 – 16.7M (↓ 2%)
10) 2023 – 17.9M (↑ 7%)
Reminder: The NFL accounted for 93 of the top 100 most-watched TV broadcasts last year.
NFL Football’s share of top 100 TV telecasts according to Nielsen:
1) 2018 – 61%
2) 2019- 73%
3) 2020 – 72%
4) 2021 – 75%
5) 2022 – 82%
6) 2023 – 93%
Flashback: Linear TV = Football With a Side of News
Big question #2: How will the presidential election impact viewership?
% change in NFL viewership during presidential election years:
1) 2012 vs. 2011 – ↓ 5%
2) 2016 vs. 2015 – ↓ 9%
3) 2020 vs. 2019 – ↓ 5%
Big question #3: Which teams draw the most viewers?
Top 10 NFL teams by 2023 national TV viewership according to Nielsen:
1) Dallas Cowboys – 25.2M
2) Washington Commanders – 25.1M
3) Philadelphia Eagles – 23.7M
4) San Francisco 49ers – 23.3M
5) Kansas City Chiefs – 23.2M
6) Detroit Lions – 20.3M
7) Buffalo Bills – 19.7M
8) Houston Texans – 19.7M
9) Green Bay Packers – 19.4M
10) Seattle Seahawks – 19.0M
Big question #4: Which NFL markets deliver the highest ratings?
Highest-rated TV markets for NFL viewership according to Kagan:
1) Kansas City
2) Green Bay
3) Buffalo
4) Cincinnati
5) Pittsburgh
Lowest-rated TV markets for NFL viewership:
1) Los Angeles
2) Nashville
3) Indianapolis
4) New York
5) Houston
Big question #5: How important is NFL football to the TV networks?
Quick answer: NFL football accounts for 7% of all linear TV ad impressions.
Big question #6: How many ads run during an NFL game?
Quick answer: 100+ (63 minutes).
Flashback: The Average NFL Fan Will Watch 3,000 Commercials During Games This Season
Big question #7: How many ads will the average NFL fan see in a year?
Quick math #1 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 4h 12m of NFL per week
2) 21 weeks per year (including playoffs)
3) 88h 12m of NFL per viewer/year
4) 33% of NFL broadcasts are ads
5) 28h 56m of ads per year
6) 3,473 30s ad spots per year
Quick math #2 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 1h 3m of ads per game
2) 126 30s spots per game
3) $0.075 per spot
4) Each NFL game generates ≈ $9.45 in advertising revenue per viewer
NOTE: We assume all spots are sold to advertisers to simplify the math.
Quick math #3 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 0h 20m of ads per hour
2) 40 30s spots per hour
3) $0.075 per spot
4) $2.95 in advertising revenue per viewing/hour
5) 4h 12m of NFL per week for the average fan
6) $12.40 in advertising revenue per viewer/week
7) $260.47 in advertising revenue per viewer/year
Big question #8: Which types of companies advertise during NFL games?
Top industries for share of NFL ad impressions according to iSpot:
1) Automotive – 10%
2) Quick service restaurants – 10%
3) Insurance – 10%
4) Telco – 6%
5) Beer – 5%
Top advertisers for share of NFL ad impressions according to iSpot:
1) Progressive – 3%
2) GEICO – 3%
3) Burger King – 2%
4) State Farm – 2%
5) T-Mobile – 2%
Big question #9: How valuable are NFL teams?
Estimated value for NFL teams (YoY growth) according to Forbes:
1) 2021 – $3.5B (↑ 14%)
2) 2022 – $4.5B (↑ 28%)
3) 2023 – $5.1B (↑ 14%)
4) 2024 – $5.7B (↑ 12%)
Quote from Marc Ganis – Sports Consultant:
“We are not even close to the top of the market for the NFL. The NFL is still in a growth phase in terms of appreciation and in terms of net revenue.”
Wow: The Dallas Cowboys became the first pro sports team to reach a $10B valuation!
Top 5 most valuable NFL teams (YoY growth):
1) Dallas Cowboys – $10.1B (↑ 12%)
2) Los Angeles Rams – $7.6B (↑ 10%)
3) New England Patriots – $7.4B (↑ 6%)
4) New York Giants – $7.3B (↑ 7%)
5) Chicago Bears – $6.9B (↑ 13%)
Big question #10: How do NFL teams make money?
NFL team revenue breakdown according to Forbes:
1) Media – 61%
2) Tickets – 20%
3) Advertising/sponsorships – 10%
4) Other – 9%
Average operating income model for NFL teams:
1) Revenue – $640M
2) Expenses – $513M (80%)
3) Operating Income – $127M (20%)
