Ten big questions re: NFL media $$$:
1) What about watching NFL games in 2023 will be different?
2) How many people watch NFL games?
3) How important is NFL football to the TV networks?
4) How many ads run during an NFL game?
5) How many ads will the average NFL fan see in a year?
6) How do NFL ad costs compare to other types of content?
7) Which content types generate the most advertising revenue per hour?
8) Which types of companies advertise during NFL games?
9) How valuable are NFL teams?
10) How do NFL teams make money?
Big question #1: What about watching NFL games in 2023 will be different?
Two big changes to how we watch NFL games:
1) NFL Sunday Ticket has moved from DirecTV (satellite) to YouTube (streaming).
2) Peacock will carry a playoff game exclusively on streaming.
Big question #2: How many people watch NFL games?
NFL average regular season viewership (YoY change) according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 2013 – 17.4M (↑ 5%)
2) 2014 – 17.6M (↑ 1%)
3) 2015 – 18.1M (↑ 3%)
4) 2016 – 16.5M (↓ 9%)
5) 2017 – 15.0M (↓ 9%)
6) 2018 – 15.8M (↑ 5%)
7) 2019 – 16.5M (↑ 5%)
8) 2020 – 15.6M (↓ 5%)
9) 2021 – 17.1M (↑ 10%)
10) 2022 – 16.7M (↓ 2%)
Reminder: The NFL accounted for 82 of the top 100 most-watched TV broadcasts last year.
Interesting: According to Austin Karp, the most-watched list without football would look like this.
Big question #3: How important is NFL football to the TV networks?
Quick answer: NFL football accounts for 7% of all linear TV ad impressions.
Big question #4: How many ads run during an NFL game?
Quick answer: 100+ (63 minutes).
Flashback #1: The Average NFL Fan Will Watch 3,000 Commercials During Games This Season
Big question #5: How many ads will the average NFL fan see in a year?
Quick math #1 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 4h 12m of NFL per week
2) 21 weeks per year (including playoffs)
3) 88h 12m of NFL per viewer/year
4) 33% of NFL broadcast is ads
5) 28h 56m of ads per year
6) 3,473 30s ad spots per year
Quick math #2 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 1h 3m of ads per game
2) 126 30s spots per game
3) $0.075 per spot
4) Each NFL game generates ≈ $9.45 in advertising revenue per viewer
NOTE: We assume all spots are sold to advertisers to simplify the math.
Quick math #3 on NFL game advertising for the average fan:
1) 0h 20m of ads per hour
2) 40 30s spots per hour
3) $0.075 per spot
4) $2.95 in advertising revenue per viewing/hour
5) 4h 12m of NFL per week for the average fan
6) $12.40 in advertising revenue per viewer/week
7) $260.47 in advertising revenue per viewer/year
Big question #6: How do NFL ad costs compare to other types of content?
Ad price CPMs (18-49 demo) during 2020-21 TV season according to Standard Media Index:
1) NFL playoffs – $92
2) Broadcast primetime – $77
3) NFL regular season – $75
Ad minutes per hour:
1) NFL regular season – 20
2) Broadcast primetime – ≈ 16
Big question #7: Which content types generate the most advertising revenue per hour?
Advertising revenue per viewer/hour:
1) NFL regular season (2021) – $2.95
2) Broadcast primetime (2021) – $2.46
3) Facebook (2019) – $0.60
4) Instagram (2019) – $0.43
5) YouTube (2019) – $0.27
6) Roblox (2021) – $0.07
7) Roku (2021) – $0.03
8) Vizio (2021) – $0.02
Big question #8: Which types of companies advertise during NFL games?
Top industries for share of NFL ad impressions according to iSpot:
1) Insurance – 9%
2) Quick service restaurants – 8%
3) Automotive – 7%
4) Telco – 5%
5) Streaming media – 5%
Big question #9: How valuable are NFL teams?
Estimated value for NFL teams (YoY growth) according to Forbes:
1) 2021 – $3.5B (↑ 14%)
2) 2022 – $4.5B (↑ 28%)
3) 2023 – $5.1B (↑ 14%)
Top 5 most valuable NFL teams (YoY growth):
1) Dallas Cowboys – $9.0B (↑ 13%)
2) New England Patriots – $7.0B (↑ 9%)
3) Los Angeles Rams – $6.9B (↑ 11%)
4) New York Giants – $6.8B (↑ 13%)
5) Chicago Bears – $6.3B (↑ 9%)
Flashback #2: NFL Franchise Values Soar Driven by Ever Expanding Media Rights
Wow: The combined value of all NFL franchises ($163B) is worth nearly as much as the NBA and MLB combined!
Average team value by league according to Forbes:
1) NFL – $5.1B
2) NBA – $2.9B
3) MLB – $2.3B
Big question #10: How do NFL teams make money?
NFL team revenue breakdown according to Forbes:
1) Media – 61%
2) Tickets – 20%
3) Advertising/sponsorships – 10%
4) Other – 9%
Average operating income model for NFL teams:
1) Revenue – $581M
2) Expenses – $455M (78%)
3) Operating Income – $126M (22%)
Bottom line: Increasing media rights (↑ 79%) revenue drives this franchise value explosion.
More #1: Sports Broke Capitalism
More #2: Inside the NFL’s All-Media Blitz: How Roger Goodell Conquered Hollywood
