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State of the Screens

Disney Earnings Slightly Less Than Magical

By November 10, 2022No Comments

2022-11-09_17-54-06

Five big questions re: Disney streaming:
1) How many streaming subscribers does Disney have?
2) How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?
3) When is Disney+ launching its ad-supported offering?
4) Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?
5) What share of total TV time does Disney+/Hulu account for?

Big question #1: How many streaming subscribers does Disney have?

Disney+ subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – 73.7M
2) 2021-Q3 – 118.1M (↑ 60%)
3) 2022-Q3 – 164.2M (↑ 39%)

35B4A5.1-2022Q3A

Disney streaming subscribers by platform (% of total):
1) 
Disney+ – 164.2M (70%)
2) 
Hulu – 47.2M (20%)
3) 
ESPN+ – 24.3M (10%)
4) Total – 235.7M

Total Disney streaming subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – 120.6M
2) 2021-Q3 – 179.0M (↑ 48%)
3) 2022-Q3 – 235.7M (↑ 32%)

Big question #2: How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?

Monthly ARPU for Disney+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $4.52
2) 2021-Q3 – $4.12 (↓ 9%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $3.91 (↓ 5%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (SVOD only)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $12.59
2) 2021-Q3 – $12.75 (↑ 1%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $12.23 (↓ 4%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $71.90
2) 2021-Q3 – $84.89 (↑ 18%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $86.77 (↑ 2%)

Monthly ARPU for ESPN+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $4.54
2) 2021-Q3 – $4.74 (↑ 4%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $4.84 (↑ 2%)

Big question #3: When is Disney+ launching its ad-supported offering?

Quick answer: December 8th

Big question #4: Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Quick math on the advertising model for Disney+:
1) 
Ad minutes/hour – 4
2) 
30s spots/hour – 8
3) CPM $ –  $50
4) $/spot – $0.05
5) Ad revenue/hour – $0.40
6) ARPU > $10.99 @ 7.5 hours ($7.99 + $3.00 = $10.99)

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Flashback: Disney’s Q2 Was No Rollercoaster

Big question #5: What share of total TV time does Disney+/Hulu account for?

Quick answer: Hulu and Disney+ account for 6% of total TV time and 16% of streaming TV time.

27B3.8-SEP2022E(Disney)

 

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.