Disney Earnings Slightly Less Than Magical

Five big questions re: Disney streaming:
1) How many streaming subscribers does Disney have?
2) How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?
3) When is Disney+ launching its ad-supported offering?
4) Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?
5) What share of total TV time does Disney+/Hulu account for?

Big question #1: How many streaming subscribers does Disney have?

Disney+ subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – 73.7M
2) 2021-Q3 – 118.1M (↑ 60%)
3) 2022-Q3 – 164.2M (↑ 39%)

Disney streaming subscribers by platform (% of total):
1) Disney+ – 164.2M (70%)
2) Hulu – 47.2M (20%)
3) ESPN+ – 24.3M (10%)
4) Total – 235.7M

Total Disney streaming subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – 120.6M
2) 2021-Q3 – 179.0M (↑ 48%)
3) 2022-Q3 – 235.7M (↑ 32%)

Big question #2: How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?

Monthly ARPU for Disney+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $4.52
2) 2021-Q3 – $4.12 (↓ 9%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $3.91 (↓ 5%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (SVOD only)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $12.59
2) 2021-Q3 – $12.75 (↑ 1%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $12.23 (↓ 4%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $71.90
2) 2021-Q3 – $84.89 (↑ 18%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $86.77 (↑ 2%)

Monthly ARPU for ESPN+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q3 – $4.54
2) 2021-Q3 – $4.74 (↑ 4%)
3) 2022-Q3 – $4.84 (↑ 2%)

Big question #3: When is Disney+ launching its ad-supported offering?

Quick answer: December 8th

Big question #4: Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Quick math on the advertising model for Disney+:
1) Ad minutes/hour – 4
2) 30s spots/hour – 8
3) CPM $ – ≈ $50
4) $/spot – $0.05
5) Ad revenue/hour – $0.40
6) ARPU > $10.99 @ 7.5 hours ($7.99 + $3.00 = $10.99)

Flashback: Disney’s Q2 Was No Rollercoaster

Big question #5: What share of total TV time does Disney+/Hulu account for?

Quick answer: Hulu and Disney+ account for 6% of total TV time and 16% of streaming TV time.