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State of the Screens

Who Is America’s Most Expensive Voter To Reach?

By October 15, 2020No Comments

Big question #1: Who are the most expensive voters to reach in America?  This is the question Mr. Screens and NPR’s Planet Money searched for an answer to.

Quick answer: It’s complicated…

Quick math on video ad spend (% of U.S. adult population) in target states:
1) 
Projected video ad spend (presidential only) – $2.2B
2) 
U.S. 18+ population – 255M
3) 
Above + registered to vote – 212M (83%)
4) Above + target state – 75M (29%)
5) Above + likely to vote – 53M (21%)
6) Above + persuadable – 11M (4%)

Wow: Presidential campaigns/groups will spend ≈ $206 on video advertising per persuadable voter!

Flashback: President Trump, Michael Bloomberg Release Dueling Super Bowl Ads

Big question #2: Which media markets are seeing the highest video ad spend per target for swing voters?

Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote) through early October according to Advertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media:
1) Erie, PA – $88.92
2) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $88.77
3) Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA – $66.35
4) Pittsburgh, PA – $62.89
5) Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA – $53.66
6) Average (60+ markets) – $18.72

Big question #3: Does this look different for swing voters likely to vote early? 

Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote by mail) through early October:
1) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $175.53
2) Las Vegas, NV – $110.93
3) Erie, PA – $110.64
4) Tucson, AZ – $100.93
5) Pittsburgh, PA – $96.35
6) Average (60+ markets) – $27.13

Why this matters: The political video ad market is huge and growing (CAGR) at a 25% rate compared to 5% for the general video ad market!

Presidential cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2016 – $2.5B
2) 2020P – $6.5B (↑ 164%)

Midterm cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2014 – $1.7B
2) 2018 – $3.9B (↑ 128%)

Broadcast TV eCPM for independent voters during the 2018 election according to Advertising Analytics/Nielsen:
1) Orlando – $363
2) Tampa – $336
3) Phoenix – $217
4) Minneapolis – $120

PSA: Multiple markets have already surpassed a $1,000 eCPM in 2020!

Video: Political Campaigns Have Grown to Trust Viewer Data: Effectv’s Dan Sinagoga

More #1: 9 things you need to know about the billions of dollars gushing through Election 2020, including who’s winning in the Trump versus Biden main event.

More #2: Trump, Biden Campaigns Turn to Streaming Services to Reach Voters

More #3: Political ‘Grocery Games’: Trump, Biden Campaigns Target Swing Voters In TV Buys

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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