Big question #1: Who are the most expensive voters to reach in America? This is the question Mr. Screens and NPR’s Planet Money searched for an answer to.
Quick answer: It’s complicated…
Quick math on video ad spend (% of U.S. adult population) in target states:
1) Projected video ad spend (presidential only) – $2.2B
2) U.S. 18+ population – 255M
3) Above + registered to vote – 212M (83%)
4) Above + target state – 75M (29%)
5) Above + likely to vote – 53M (21%)
6) Above + persuadable – ≈11M (4%)
Wow: Presidential campaigns/groups will spend ≈ $206 on video advertising per persuadable voter!
Flashback: President Trump, Michael Bloomberg Release Dueling Super Bowl Ads
Big question #2: Which media markets are seeing the highest video ad spend per target for swing voters?
Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote) through early October according to Advertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media:
1) Erie, PA – $88.92
2) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $88.77
3) Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA – $66.35
4) Pittsburgh, PA – $62.89
5) Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA – $53.66
6) Average (60+ markets) – $18.72
Big question #3: Does this look different for swing voters likely to vote early?
Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote by mail) through early October:
1) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $175.53
2) Las Vegas, NV – $110.93
3) Erie, PA – $110.64
4) Tucson, AZ – $100.93
5) Pittsburgh, PA – $96.35
6) Average (60+ markets) – $27.13
Why this matters: The political video ad market is huge and growing (CAGR) at a 25% rate compared to 5% for the general video ad market!
Presidential cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2016 – $2.5B
2) 2020P – $6.5B (↑ 164%)
Midterm cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2014 – $1.7B
2) 2018 – $3.9B (↑ 128%)
Broadcast TV eCPM for independent voters during the 2018 election according to Advertising Analytics/Nielsen:
1) Orlando – $363
2) Tampa – $336
3) Phoenix – $217
4) Minneapolis – $120
PSA: Multiple markets have already surpassed a $1,000 eCPM in 2020!
Video: Political Campaigns Have Grown to Trust Viewer Data: Effectv’s Dan Sinagoga
More #2: Trump, Biden Campaigns Turn to Streaming Services to Reach Voters
More #3: Political ‘Grocery Games’: Trump, Biden Campaigns Target Swing Voters In TV Buys
