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State of the Screens

Top Agencies Predict Strong Ad Market Rebound

By January 21, 2021No Comments

U.S. End of year Forecast

 

U.S. ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 2012 – $184.2B
2) 2013 – $184.7B (↑ 0%)
3) 2014 – $191.8B (↑ 4%)
4) 2015 – $195.8B (↑ 2%)
5) 2016 – $208.7B (↑ 7%)
6) 2017 – $214.3B (↑ 3%)
7) 2018 – $229.4B (↑ 7%)
8) 2019 – $237.3B (↑ 3%)
9) 2020 – $228.1B (↓ 4%)
10) 2021P – $242.2B (↑ 6%)
11) 2022P – $265.6B (↑ 10%)
12) 2023P – $263.8B (↓ 1%)
13) 2024P – $286.8B (↑ 9%)

 

Total Advertising Growth - U.S.

 

Big question: How does the GroupM estimate for U.S. ad growth in 2021 compare to others?

U.S. forecasts for 2020 vs. 2021 according to MediaPost:
1) GroupM – ↑ 6%
2) MAGNA – ↑ 4%
3) Zenith – ↑ 3%
4) Dentsu Aegis – ↑ 3%

US Ad Forecasts effective December 2020

 

U.S. TV ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 2012 – $64.2B
2) 2013 – $63.3B (↓ 1%)
3) 2014 – $67.2B (↑ 6%)
4) 2015 – $65.9B (↓ 2%)
5) 2016 – $71.3B (↑ 8%)
6) 2017 – $67.0B (↓ 6%)
7) 2018 – $68.3B (↑ 2%)
8) 2019 – $64,5B (↓ 5%)
9) 2020 – $62.9B (↓ 2%)
10) 2021P – $59.8B (↓ 5%)
11) 2022P – $66.2B (↑ 11%)
12) 2023P – $59.4B (↓ 10%)
13) 2024P – $65.2B (↑ 10%)

Big question #2: How are marketers approaching 2021?

Quick answer: Cautiously.

Degree of flexibility in marketer budgets in 2021 according to the IAB:
1) Ballpark estimates – 39%
2) Total budget w/ flexibility – 19%
3) Firm 2021-Q1 – 14%
4) No idea – 10%
5) Firm 2021-1H – 10%
6) Firm 2021-FY – 8%

 

2021 Media Budgets Flexible Graph

 

Changing approach to media budgets in 2021:
1) More frequent updates – 64%
2) Business as usual – 25%
3) Short term budget – 17%
4) Contingency plans – 12%

 

Buyers are responding to dynamicly-changing world

 

Big question #3: What is changing about the convergent TV landscape?

Quick answer: Video ad budgets are rapidly shifting to CTV/OTT.

Top reasons for shifting budget from linear to CTV/OTT:
1) Targeting and efficiency – 81%
2) Incremental reach – 55%
3) Creative optimization – 27%

 

Buyers see CTV as more targeted, efficient, and stable

 

More #1: Ad Agency Forecast: Expect The Advertising Market To Rebound In 2021

 

More #2: Why TV Advertising Won’t Recover What It Lost in 2020

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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