Five big questions re: local TV market growth in 2023:
1) How many TV households are in the United States?
2) Which local TV markets are growing?
3) Which local TV markets are shrinking?
4) How large is the local advertising market?
5) What share of local advertising does total TV account for?
Big question #1: How many TV households are in the United States?
U.S. Television households (YoY growth), according to Nielsen:
1) 2018-19 – 119.9M
2) 2019-20 – 120.6M (↑ 1%)
3) 2020-21 – 121.0M (↑ 0%)
4) 2021-22 – 122.4M (↑ 1%)
5) 2022-23 – 123.8M (↑ 1%)
Zoom out: Total TV households have only grown by 16% (17M) over the past 20 years.
U.S. Television households (% growth), according to Nielsen:
1) 2002-03 – 106.7M
2) 2012-13 – 114.2M (↑ 7%)
3) 2022-23 – 123.8M (↑ 8%)
Why this matters: In the past few years, there have been more ways to watch content (streaming, etc.), and there have been more content. This is causing fragmentation.
Big question #2: Which local TV markets are growing?
Top 5 markets by total growth according to Nielsen:
1) Los Angeles – ↑ 141K
2) New York – ↑ 93K
3) Chicago – ↑ 82K
4) Dallas-Ft. Worth – ↑ 79K
5) Houston – ↑ 67K
Top 5 markets by growth rate:
1) Greenwood-Greenville – ↑ 25%
2) Harlingen-Wslco-Brnsvl-McA – ↑ 9%
3) Madison – ↑ 9%
4) El Paso (Las Cruces) – ↑ 7%
5) Tucson (Sierra Vista) – ↑ 7%
Big question #3: Which local TV markets are shrinking?
Bottom 5 markets by total growth:
1) Minneapolis-St. Paul – ↓ 79K
2) Seattle-Tacoma- ↓ 42K
3) Portland, OR – ↓ 38K
4) Milwaukee – ↓ 36K
5) San Francisco-Oak-San Jose- ↓ 28K
Bottom 5 markets by total growth:
1) Helena – ↓ 12%
2) Odessa-Midland- ↓ 9%
3) Eugene – ↓ 6%
4) Minot-Bsmrck-Dcknsn(Wlstn) – ↓ 6%
5) Clarksburg-Weston- ↓ 4%
Big question #4: How large is the local advertising market?
Local ad spend by year (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 2022 – $157.6B (↑ 3%)
2) 2023 – $165.2B (↑ 5%)
Big question #5: What share of local advertising does total TV account for?
Quick answer: According to BIA, total TV accounts for ≈ 21% of all local marketing spend.
