Five big questions re: peak TV:
1) How many TV shows were released last year?
2) Is this the end of prestige TV?
3) How much is spent on TV content each year?
4) What share of TV content spend does sports account for?
5) What are the most expensive TV shows ever?
Big question #1: How many TV shows were released last year?
Original scripted shows (YoY growth) according to FX:
1) 2014 – 389 (↑ 11%)
2) 2015 – 422 (↑ 8%)
3) 2016 – 455 (↑ 8%)
4) 2017 – 487 (↑ 7%)
5) 2018 – 495 (↑ 2%)
6) 2019 – 532 (↑ 7%)
7) 2020 – 493 (↓ 7%)
8) 2021 – 559 (↑ 13%)
9) 2022 – 599 (↑ 7%)
10) 2023 – 516 (↓ 14%)
Flashback: Hollywood’s Ten-Year Bender Slowly Comes to an End
Wow: Some analysts predict the number of original scripted shows could drop to 400 by 2025 (↓ 33% from a high of 600).
Quote from John Landgraf – Chairman @ FX Networks:
“The drawdown of production was likely underway even before the strike shuttered all production. The realignment of industry priorities from streaming scale at any cost to profitability continued after the strikes, leading to the cancellation of numerous projects.”
Reminder: Netflix makes more shows than the entire TV industry did in 2006, the year before it launched streaming.
Big question #2: Is this the end of prestige TV?
Quick answer: Not the end, but smaller. Think more House Hunters and less The Crown.
Original unscripted shows, according to Matthew Ball:
1) 2002 – 50
2) 2023 – 1,100
Quote from Stephen Armstrong:
“How times have changed. Now, there are more opportunities to watch than ever before, and yet there’s hardly anything on. The strikes are a symptom of a deeper malaise, and it’s becoming clear that the gold rush of quality content in fact contained the seeds of its own downfall. The reason TV is rubbish at the moment is that no one really knows what its future holds and everyone is fighting to preserve different parts of a broken system.”
Big question #3: How much is spent on TV content each year?
Quick answer: In the U.S., $152B will be spent on TV content in 2024, which is 6% lower than previous estimates ($162B). Globally, the total content spend is estimated to be $247B.
Estimated U.S. content spend by network in 2024 according to Morgan Stanley:
1) Disney – $32B
2) Comcast – $28B
3) Amazon – $22B
4) Netflix – $20B
5) Warner Bros. Discovery – $17B
6) Paramount – $16B
7) Fox – $10B
8) Apple – $5B
9) Lionsgate – $2B
10) AMC Networks – $1B
11) Total – $152B
Big question #4: What share of TV content spend does sports account for?
Estimated share of U.S. content spend by type in 2024 according to Morgan Stanley:
1) Non-sports – 79% ($120B)
2) Sports – 21% ($32B)
Big question #5: What are the most expensive TV shows ever?
Most expensive shows by episode, according to Collider:
1) The Lord of the Rings: Rings of Power (Amazon – 2022) – $58M
2) Stranger Things (Netflix – 2016) – $30M
3) WandaVision (Disney+ – 2021) – $25M
4) House of Dragon (HBO – 2022) – $20M
5) The Pacific (HBO – 2010) – $20M
6) The Mandalorian (Disney+ – 2019) – $15M
7) See (Apple TV+ – 2019) – $15M
8) Game of Thrones (HBO – 2011) – $15M
9) The Crown (Netflix – 2016) – $13M
10) Halo (Paramount+ – 2022) – $10M
