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State of the Screens

Netflix crushes estimates, renewing faith after July letdown

By October 23, 2018No Comments

Netflix crushed Q3 estimates for subscriber growth beating Wall Street estimates by 37%.

Subscriber growth in 2018-Q3:
1)
Projected — 5.1M
2)
Actual — 7.0M

Total subscribers by quarter (% growth):
1)
2012-Q3–29.4M
2)
2013-Q3–40.3M (↑ 37%)
3) 2014-Q3–53.1M (↑ 32%)
4) 2015-Q3–69.2M (↑ 30%)
5) 2016-Q3–86.7M (↑ 25%)
6) 2017-Q3–109.2M (↑ 26%)
7) 2018-Q3–137.1M (↑ 26%)

Subscriber growth in 2018-Q3 (% of total):
1)
Domestic — 1.1M (16%)
2) International — 5.9M (84%)
3) Total — 7.0M

Total subscribers (% of total):
1) Domestic — 58.5M (43%)
2) International — 78.6M (57%)
3) Total — 137.1M

Netflix is projecting 7.6M new subscribers in Q4!

Flashback #1: Inside the Binge Factory

Netflix subscribers:
1) 2011–25M
2) 2018–137M
3) 2020P — 200M
4) 2030P — 360M

Flashback #2: Netflix Is Expected to Spend up to $13 Billion on Original Programming This Year

Netflix content spend by year (YoY increase):
1) 2013 — $2B
2)
2014 — $3B (↑ 50%)
3) 2015 — $4B (↑ 33%)
4) 2016 — $5B (↑ 25%)
5) 2017 — $6B (↑ 20%)
6) 2018 — $8B (↑ 33%)
7) 2019P — $10B (↑ 26%)
8) 2020P — $12B (↑ 20%)
9) 2021P — $14B (↑ 17%)
10) 2022P — $16B (↑ 13%)

Watch: Julia Boorstin breaks down Netflix Q3 numbers.

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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