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State of the Screens

Mulan vs. Tenet. Home Rental vs. Box Office. And The Winner Is?

By October 1, 2020No Comments

Labor Day movie ticket revenue (YoY change) according to The Numbers:
1)
 2019 – $137.3M
2)
 2020 – $27.0M (↓ 80%)

Labor Day top earner (YoY change):
1) 
It: Chapter Two – $91.1M
2) 
Tenent – $20.2M (↓ 78%)

Quick math on Tenet opening:
1) Indoor movie theaters in US – 5,500
2) Indoor movie theaters open w/ Tenent – 2,930
3) 
% of movie theaters w/ Tenent – 53%
4) 
Screens/theater – 7.4
5) Seats/screen – 150 – 750 (≈ 615)
6) Screens w/ Tenant – 21,636
7) 
Seats w/ Tenant – 13.3M
8) 
Labor Day revenue – $20.2M
9) 
Average tick cost – $9.15
10) 
Tickets sold – 2.2M
11) 
Tickets sold/seat – 0.2
12) 
Ticket revenue/screen – $934
13) 
Ticket revenue/theater – $6,894

Why this matters: Theaters are open, but 82% of adults are not comfortable going to movies.

Share of adults comfortable going to movies according to Morning Consult:
1) 
April (low) – 12%
2) 
June (high) – 23%
3) 
September – 18%

U.S. movie ticket revenue (YoY growth) according to Box Office Mojo:
1) 
2010 – $10.6B
2) 2011 – $10.2B  (↓ 4%)
3) 2012 – $10.8B  (↑ 7%)
4) 2013 – $10.9B  (↑ 1%)
5) 2014 – $10.4B  (↓ 5%)
6) 2015 – $11.1B  (↑ 7%)
7) 2016 – $11.4B  (↑ 2%)
8) 2017 – $11.1B  (↓ 3%)
9) 2018 – $11.9B  (↑ 7%)
10) 2019 – $11.3B  (↓ 5%)
11) 2020P – $5.5B (↓ 51%)
12) 2021P – $9.7B (↑ 76%)

Big question: If consumers aren’t ready to return to theaters, then shouldn’t home rentals be taking off?

Quick answer: Unclear.

Home rental estimates in the US for Mulan according to Entertainment Strategy Guy:
1) 
# of purchases – 3M
2) 
$/purchase – $30
3) 
Total revenue – $90M

Interesting: ANTENNA shows the drop in interest following a home rental release.

What happens next: Expect studios to delay releases further.

Quote from Paul Dergarabedian – Senior Media Analyst @ Comscore:
“It’s natural that we’re going to see release date changes for many movies.  It’s a very unpredictable marketplace.”

More #1: Movie Theaters Returned. Audiences Didn’t. Now What?

More #2: A national movie-theater chain is rolling out a wild plan to let you rent your own private cinema, starting at $300 plus the cost of tickets

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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