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State of the Screens

Disney’s Earnings Need a Better Ending

By February 23, 2023No Comments

Six big questions re: Disney streaming:
1)   How many people subscribe to Disney’s streaming services?
2)   What share of Disney+ signups are international?
3)   How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?
4)   What percentage of total TV time is spent watching Disney+/Hulu?
5)   How many brands advertised on Disney+ during the ad-supported launch?
6)   Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Big question #1: How many people subscribe to Disney’s streaming services?

Disney+ subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2019 – 28.6M
2) 2020 – 94.9M (↑ 232%)
3) 2021 – 129.8M (↑ 37%)
4) 2022 – 161.8M (↑ 25%)

Disney streaming subscribers by platform (% of total):
1) 
Disney+ – 161.8M (69%)
2) 
Hulu – 48.0M (20%)
3) 
ESPN+ – 24.9M (11%)
4) Total – 234.7M

Total Disney streaming subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020 – 146.4M
2) 2021 – 196.4M (↑ 34%)
3) 2022 – 234.7M (↑ 20%)

Big question #2: What share of Disney+ signups are international?

Share of Disney+ subscribers outside the U.S./Canada:
1) 2020 – 62%
2) 2021 – 67%
3) 2022 – 71%

Big question #3: How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?

Monthly ARPU for Disney+ (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q4 – $5.56
2) 2020-Q4 – $4.03 (↓ 28%)
3) 2021-Q4 – $4.41 (↑ 9%)
4) 2022-Q4 – $3.93 (↓ 11%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (SVOD only)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $13.51
2) 2021-Q4 – $12.96 (↓ 4%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $12.46 (↓ 4%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $75.11
2) 2021-Q4 – $87.01 (↑ 16%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $87.90 (↑ 16%)

Monthly ARPU for ESPN+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $4.48
2) 2021-Q4 – $5.16 (↑ 15%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $5.53 (↑ 7%)

Big question #4: What percentage of total TV time is spent watching Disney+/Hulu?

Quick answer: Hulu and Disney+ account for 5% of total TV time and 14% of streaming TV time.

27B3.8-JAN2023E(Disney)

Big question #5: How many brands advertised on Disney+ during the ad-supported launch?

Quick answer: 100+ brands.

Big question #6: Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Quick math on the advertising model for Disney+:
1) 
Ad minutes/hour – 4
2) 
30s spots/hour – 8
3) CPM $ –  $50
4) $/spot – $0.05
5) Ad revenue/hour – $0.40
6) ARPU > $10.99 @ 7.5 hours ($7.99 + $3.00 = $10.99)

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.