Disney’s Earnings Need a Better Ending

Six big questions re: Disney streaming:
1)   How many people subscribe to Disney’s streaming services?
2)   What share of Disney+ signups are international?
3)   How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?
4)   What percentage of total TV time is spent watching Disney+/Hulu?
5)   How many brands advertised on Disney+ during the ad-supported launch?
6)   Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Big question #1: How many people subscribe to Disney’s streaming services?

Disney+ subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2019 – 28.6M
2) 2020 – 94.9M (↑ 232%)
3) 2021 – 129.8M (↑ 37%)
4) 2022 – 161.8M (↑ 25%)

Disney streaming subscribers by platform (% of total):
1) Disney+ – 161.8M (69%)
2) Hulu – 48.0M (20%)
3) ESPN+ – 24.9M (11%)
4) Total – 234.7M

Total Disney streaming subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2020 – 146.4M
2) 2021 – 196.4M (↑ 34%)
3) 2022 – 234.7M (↑ 20%)

Big question #2: What share of Disney+ signups are international?

Share of Disney+ subscribers outside the U.S./Canada:
1) 2020 – 62%
2) 2021 – 67%
3) 2022 – 71%

Big question #3: How much money do they currently make from each streaming subscriber?

Monthly ARPU for Disney+ (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q4 – $5.56
2) 2020-Q4 – $4.03 (↓ 28%)
3) 2021-Q4 – $4.41 (↑ 9%)
4) 2022-Q4 – $3.93 (↓ 11%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (SVOD only)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $13.51
2) 2021-Q4 – $12.96 (↓ 4%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $12.46 (↓ 4%)

Monthly ARPU for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD)(YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $75.11
2) 2021-Q4 – $87.01 (↑ 16%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $87.90 (↑ 16%)

Monthly ARPU for ESPN+ (YoY growth):
1) 2020-Q4 – $4.48
2) 2021-Q4 – $5.16 (↑ 15%)
3) 2022-Q4 – $5.53 (↑ 7%)

Big question #4: What percentage of total TV time is spent watching Disney+/Hulu?

Quick answer: Hulu and Disney+ account for 5% of total TV time and 14% of streaming TV time.

Big question #5: How many brands advertised on Disney+ during the ad-supported launch?

Quick answer: 100+ brands.

Big question #6: Will ad-supported subscribers generate more revenue than ad-free?

Quick math on the advertising model for Disney+:
1) Ad minutes/hour – 4
2) 30s spots/hour – 8
3) CPM $ – ≈ $50
4) $/spot – $0.05
5) Ad revenue/hour – $0.40
6) ARPU > $10.99 @ 7.5 hours ($7.99 + $3.00 = $10.99)