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State of the Screens

BIA Revises its U.S. Local Advertising Revenue Forecast Down to $144.3B Due to Coronavirus Impacts

By April 30, 2020No Comments

Local ad spend by year (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 
2018 – $145.5B
2) 
2019P – $152.7B (↑ 5%)
3) 2020P* – $144.3B (↓ 6%)
4) 2021P – $165.8B (↑ 15%)
5) 2022P – $173.8B (↑ 5%)
6) 2023P – $179.6B (↑ 3%)
7) 2024P – $187.6B (↑ 4%)

Note: The BIA update was for 2020, and we are currently using their original projections for 2021-24.

Local ad spend for 2020 (% change):
1) Original – $161.3B
2) Updated – $144.3B (↓ 11%)

Change in local ad spend by vertical for 2020:
1) 
Politics – ↑ $500M
2) 
Everything else –  $17.5B

Thinking Face on Apple iOS 13.3

Local advertisers spending plan during COVID-19 according to Borrell:
1) 
Less – 52%
2) 
Same – 28%
3) 
More – 16%
4) 
Don’t Know – 4%

Bottom line: The advertisers (44%) who maintain/increase their spending will be in a less cluttered environment with better rates.

Potential marketing advantage:
1) 
Ad inventory – ↑ 60%
2) 
Ad demand – ↓ 40%

Local news viewership increase between 2019-20 according to Nielsen:
1) 
March 4-10 – ↑ 8%
2) 
March 1-17 – ↑ 21%
3) 
March 18-24 – ↑ 57%

Video: The Perfect Marketing Storm of 2020

More #1: It’s All Local Now: The End Of National TV Ad Buying During The Pandemic

More #2: Scripps On ‘Business Equivalent Of Adrenaline

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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