Tenet

Mulan vs. Tenet. Home Rental vs. Box Office. And The Winner Is?

Labor Day movie ticket revenue (YoY change) according to The Numbers:
1)
 2019 – $137.3M
2)
 2020 – $27.0M (↓ 80%)

Labor Day top earner (YoY change):
1) 
It: Chapter Two – $91.1M
2) 
Tenent – $20.2M (↓ 78%)

Quick math on Tenet opening:
1) Indoor movie theaters in US – 5,500
2) Indoor movie theaters open w/ Tenent – 2,930
3) 
% of movie theaters w/ Tenent – 53%
4) 
Screens/theater – 7.4
5) Seats/screen – 150 – 750 (≈ 615)
6) Screens w/ Tenant – 21,636
7) 
Seats w/ Tenant – 13.3M
8) 
Labor Day revenue – $20.2M
9) 
Average tick cost – $9.15
10) 
Tickets sold – 2.2M
11) 
Tickets sold/seat – 0.2
12) 
Ticket revenue/screen – $934
13) 
Ticket revenue/theater – $6,894

Why this matters: Theaters are open, but 82% of adults are not comfortable going to movies.

Share of adults comfortable going to movies according to Morning Consult:
1) 
April (low) – 12%
2) 
June (high) – 23%
3) 
September – 18%

U.S. movie ticket revenue (YoY growth) according to Box Office Mojo:
1) 
2010 – $10.6B
2) 2011 – $10.2B  (↓ 4%)
3) 2012 – $10.8B  (↑ 7%)
4) 2013 – $10.9B  (↑ 1%)
5) 2014 – $10.4B  (↓ 5%)
6) 2015 – $11.1B  (↑ 7%)
7) 2016 – $11.4B  (↑ 2%)
8) 2017 – $11.1B  (↓ 3%)
9) 2018 – $11.9B  (↑ 7%)
10) 2019 – $11.3B  (↓ 5%)
11) 2020P – $5.5B (↓ 51%)
12) 2021P – $9.7B (↑ 76%)

Big question: If consumers aren’t ready to return to theaters, then shouldn’t home rentals be taking off?

Quick answer: Unclear.

Home rental estimates in the US for Mulan according to Entertainment Strategy Guy:
1) 
# of purchases – 3M
2) 
$/purchase – $30
3) 
Total revenue – $90M

Interesting: ANTENNA shows the drop in interest following a home rental release.

What happens next: Expect studios to delay releases further.

Quote from Paul Dergarabedian – Senior Media Analyst @ Comscore:
“It’s natural that we’re going to see release date changes for many movies.  It’s a very unpredictable marketplace.”

More #1: Movie Theaters Returned. Audiences Didn’t. Now What?

More #2: A national movie-theater chain is rolling out a wild plan to let you rent your own private cinema, starting at $300 plus the cost of tickets

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