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Retailers Will Get Full Stockings This Holiday Season

By December 23, 2021January 4th, 2022No Comments

Total U.S. holiday spend (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2015 – $860B ( 2%)
2) 2016 – $896B ( 4%)
3) 2017 – $939B ( 5%)
4) 2018 – $953B ( 2%)
5) 2019 – $991B ( 4%)
6) 2020 – $1,052B ( 6%)
7) 2021P – $1,147B ( 9%)


Flashback: Record Online Spend Means Happy Holidays For E-tailers

ECommerce share of U.S. holiday spend:
1) 2015 – 10%
2) 2016 – 10%
3) 2017 – 12%
4) 2018 – 11%
5) 2019 – 14%
6) 2020 – 18%
7) 2021P – 18%

Why this matters: Ecommerce will grow its share of holiday sales even as the share of consumers “comfortable at shopping malls” grew 94% YoY.

Share of consumers comfortable at shopping malls according to Morning Consult:
1) Nov-20 – 33%
2) Nov-21 – 64%

Average holiday spend per person (YoY growth) according to the National Retail Federation:

1) 2009 – $783     
2) 
2010 – $831 ( 6%)
3) 2011 – $878 ( 6%)
4) 2012 – $893 ( 2%)
5) 2013 – $902 ( 1%)
6) 2014 – $929 ( 3%)
7) 2015 – $953 ( 3%)
8) 2016 – $936 ( 2%)
9) 2017 – $967 ( 3%)
10) 2018 – $1,007 ( 4%)
11) 2019 – $1,048 ( 4%)
12) 2020 – $997 ( 5%)
13) 2021P – $998 ( 0%)

Breakdown of average holiday spend (% of total):
1) 
Gifts – $648 (65%)
2) Cards/Decorations – $231 (23%)
3) Travel/Other – $119 (12%)

Big question #1: When do people start holiday shopping?

 

Quick answer: A record high of 61% of consumers had already begun by early November.

 

Big question #2: When do people finish holiday shopping?

 

Quick answer: Mr. Screens tips his hat to the 25% of you still fighting the good fight!

Big question #3: When is it acceptable to put up a Christmas tree?  Asking for a friend.

When it is acceptable to put up a Christmas tree according to Axios:
1) November after Thanksgiving – 55%
2) November before Thanksgiving – 20%
3) Early December – 17%
4) Never too early – 6%
5) After December 20th – 2%

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.