The battle for control of addressable TV is heating up and multiple industry giants are on a collision course.
The players:
1) NCC Media
2) Xandr
3) Project OAR
The players in NCC Media:
1) Comcast
2) Cox
3) Charter
The players in Project OAR:
1) AMC Networks
2) AT&T
3) CBS
4) Comcast NBCUniversal
5) Discovery
6) Disney
7) Freewheel
8) Hearst
9) Inscape
10) Turner
11) Xandr
12) Vizio
What ad inventory does each party currently have access to?
1) NCC Media — 2 minutes of local
2) Xandr — 2 minutes of local; 14 minutes of WarnerMedia
3) Project OAR — 14 minutes of network
The key difference: NCC Media and Xandr have the advantage w/ addressable TV due to owning the last mile to the consumer and knowing their identity. Their challenge is they can only apply that targeting to the 2 minutes of local time. The networks own 88% of the inventory but have been unable to offer addressable advertising until recently (see Project OAR).
Ultimate goal: Each entity wants to offer addressable TV advertising to the entire 16 minutes of ad time.
Quote from Craig Moffett — Analyst @ MoffettNathanson:
“The days when television outlets only competed with other television outlets are long over and now the competition is Facebook and Google…If you don’t evolve the television product, everyone’s fear is that they are going to lose to the much better targeting that the digital providers can offer.”
TV ad spend per year according to eMarketer (YoY growth):
1) 2019P — $70.8B (↓ 2.2%)
2) 2020P — $71.2B (↑ 0.5%)
3) 2021P — $70.5B (↓ 1.0%)
4) 2022P — $69.8B (↓ 1.0%)
5) 2023P — $69.1B (↓ 1.0%)
Addressable TV ad spend per year (YoY growth):
1) 2016 — $760M (↑ 85%)
2) 2017 — $1.2B (↑ 61%)
3) 2018 — $2.1B (↑ 69%)
4) 2019P — $2.5B (↑ 23%)
5) 2020P — $3.4B (↑ 33%)
Television homes in U.S. according to IAB (% of total):
1) Addressable — 64.3M (54%)
2) Non-Addressable — 55.6M (46%)
3) Total — 119.9M
National TV ad spend share by targeting type according to eMarketer:
1) Age/Gender — 95%
2) Advanced TV/Audience — ≈ 3%
3) Addressable — 2%
More #1: Why Open AP Won’t Close (Just Yet)
More #2: AT&T’s Signal To Xandr: No More M&A For Now
More #3: Identity and Advanced TV Have Reshaped Video Advertising
