Netflix beat analyst projections for subscription growth by 16%.
Subscriber growth in 2018-Q4:
1) Projected — 7.6M
2) Actual — 8.8M
Netflix subscribers (% of total):
1) International — 80.8M (58%)
2) Domestic — 58.5M (42%)
3) Total — 139.3M
Total subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q4–110.6M
2) 2018-Q4–139.3M (↑ 26%)
Flashback #1: Inside the Binge Factory
Netflix subscribers:
1) 2011–25M
2) 2018–139M
3) 2020P — 200M
4) 2030P — 360M
Wow: Netflix estimates that their programming accounts for 10% of total TV screen time in the U.S.
Netflix estimate on total daily TV time (% of total):
1) Total TV hours — 1B
2) Netflix TV hours — 100M (10%)
Quick math #1 on total TV time:
1) TV households — ≈ 120M
2) TV sets/HH — 2
3) Hours/day/TV set — 4
4) Hours/day/HH — 8
5) Total TV hours/day — ≈ 960M
Quick math #2 on Netflix TV time:
1) U.S. subscribers — 58.5M
2) TV sets/HH — 2
3) Netflix TV hours/day — 100M
4) Hours/day/TV set — 0.85
5) Hours/day/subscriber — 1.70
Quote from Reed Hastings — CEO @ Netflix:
“That is why Disney — they have great content and we’re excited for their launch — maybe they grow over a couple of years to 50 million hours a day, but that’s out of the billion,”
Netflix content spend by year (YoY increase):
1) 2013 — $2B
2) 2014 — $3B (↑ 50%)
3) 2015 — $4B (↑ 33%)
4) 2016 — $5B (↑ 25%)
5) 2017 — $9B (↑ 80%)
6) 2018 — $12B (↑ 35%)
7) 2019P — $15B (↑ 25%)
Netflix free cash flow by year:
1) 2014 — -$53M
2) 2015 — -$841M
3) 2016 — -$1.58B
4) 2017 — -$1.96B
5) 2018 — -$2.85B
6) 2019 — -$2.85B
TBT: It was 10 years ago this month when Netflix first released streaming video!
Video: What to expect from Netflix Q4 earnings
Podcast: Netflix and Its New Challengers
More #1: Netflix Is Set to Post Big Q4 Earnings — Proof That Wall Street Gives It a Longer Leash
More #2: Netflix’s Simplicity Is Its Secret Weapon
More #3: Why Netflix is poised to survive the new ‘tv bubble’
