Does 1% of the vote matter?
- In the 2020 presidential election, four states were decided by less than 1% of votes.
- Two states in the 2022 Senate race were decided by less than 1% of votes.
Reaching 1% more swing voters in battleground states could be the difference between presidents or majorities. And in 2024, more swing voters are reachable on Connected TV than linear TV.
We put together a report to help political agencies answer three big questions for the 2024 elections:
- Where are swing voters reachable in 2024?
- How much does it cost to reach swing voters in 2024?
- How does the strategy to reach swing voters vary by market?
Big question #1: Where are swing voters reachable in 2024?
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- In 2024, swing voters will be more reachable on CTV than TV in the 8 most important states for the presidential and Senate elections.
- On average, 28% of swing voters in these states are exclusively reachable on CTV, going as high as 34% in AZ.
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Big question #2: How much does it cost to reach swing voters in 2024?
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- Quick definition: effective CPM (eCPM) is the cost to deliver 1,000 on-target and viewable impressions.
- CTV is able to target swing voters directly, whereas Linear TV ads are delivered to all adults in the media market regardless of voter profile or if they even live in the correct state.
- The result is a higher eCPM on TV for both candidate and issue rates. On average, CTV is 60% cheaper than candidate rates and 83% cheaper than issue rates for on-target and viewable impressions.
- Under federal law, broadcast stations and cable providers are required to offer the lowest unit rate (LUR) to qualified candidates running for political office. PACs and issue groups do not benefit from the same regulation, and therefore are subject to rates ~2.5x higher and sometimes over 5x depending on the market.
- Digital/CTV CPMs are the same for candidates and PACs because it does not fall under the same regulation as TV. This makes Digital/CTV even more cost effective for PACs.
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Big question #3: How does the strategy to reach swing voters vary by market?
All politics is local. We put together a deep dive for each battleground state to determine:
- How are swing voters reachable at the individual market level?
- What does it cost to target them?
- How effectively were they reached in the 2022 elections?
Want to see the breakdown for every battleground state? Get all the key numbers here!
