HBO Max domestic subscriber projections (YoY growth) according to AT&T:
1) 2019 – 34M
2) 2020 – 42M (↑ 22%)
3) 2021P – 38M (↑ 6%)
4) 2022P – 41M (↑ 8%)
5) 2023P – 44M (↑ 7%)
6) 2024P – 47M (↑ 7%)
7) 2025P – 50M (↑ 6%)
Why this matters: HBO has already grown its subscriber base past the 2022 projection.
Wow: HBO added more subscribers in 2020 than the prior ten years combined!
Big question: What drove sign ups?
Quick answer: Wonder Woman 1984
First-run movies make HBO Max more valuable, according to Maru/Matchbox:
1) HBO Max activations – 92%
2) HBO without Max activation – 71%
3) Non-HBO (Max) – subscribers – 30%
HBO Max eligibility (% of total HBO subscribers) according to ANTENNA:
1) Eligible + not activated – 20.5M (50%)
2) Eligible + activated – 17.2M (41%)
3) Not eligible – 3.8M (9%)
4) Total HBO subscribers (US only) – 41.5M
Self-reported usage of HBO Max according to YouGov:
1) Aug-20 – 7%
2) Sep-20 – 6%
3) Oct-20 – 12%
4) Nov-20 – 13%
Mr. Screen’s Crystal Ball: Enough pent up demand exists for advertising against premium streaming content that an HBO Max ad-supported tier will be successful and drive revenue per user (ARPU) higher than $15/month. This offering could launch as early as 2021-Q2.
Video: Celebrating the Best in the Business with Casey Bloys, Chief Content Officer, HBO & HBO Max
