With the dust settled from the 2024 election, we want to dive into one area where we think political advertisers can improve in 2026: AB/EV. Remember, 52% of voters in 2022 cast their ballot before E-day. Pending the final tally, that number increased in 2024 with some states seeing 80%+ early vote totals.
We found two compounding issues from this cycle that every agency can attack moving forward:
1.) Not accounting for AB/EV returns in budgeting
Why is this a problem?
- If you aren’t automatically excluding AB/EV returns, you are wasting upwards of half your budget in the final weeks on those who have already voted.
- If you are excluding AB/EV returns, but not reallocating budget to other audiences, you will see your average frequencies skyrocket 2-5x. Also wasteful.
2.) Foregoing mobilization and GOTV plans
How can a campaign create votes?
- Persuade the undecided likely voters to your side.
- Turn out low propensity voters already on your side.
Why is this a problem?
- By opting not to run mobilization campaigns you miss a huge swath of potential votes. This compounds in the final weeks when the high propensity persuadables are voting early and low propensity voters aren’t reached.
Cross Screen Media’s solution in action: In a 2024 statewide race where AB/EV started 3 weeks before E-day and 60% of votes were cast early, CSM shifted budget from swing voters to mobilization targets each day based on the percentage of swing voters who had cast their ballot the day prior. The results:
- 81% of swing voters were reached.
- Average frequency to swing voters was normalized in the final 3 weeks – eliminating wasteful spending.
- With marginal budget moved, the campaign reached 38% of the mobilization targets in the final 2 weeks. A key voting segment that would have gone unreached otherwise.
Reach out to our team for a deep dive on any state or for any race your team is involved in!
