NPR planet money

Who Is America’s Most Expensive Voter To Reach?

Big question #1: Who are the most expensive voters to reach in America?  This is the question Mr. Screens and NPR’s Planet Money searched for an answer to.

Quick answer: It’s complicated…

Quick math on video ad spend (% of U.S. adult population) in target states:
1) 
Projected video ad spend (presidential only) – $2.2B
2) 
U.S. 18+ population – 255M
3) 
Above + registered to vote – 212M (83%)
4) Above + target state – 75M (29%)
5) Above + likely to vote – 53M (21%)
6) Above + persuadable – 11M (4%)

Wow: Presidential campaigns/groups will spend ≈ $206 on video advertising per persuadable voter!

Flashback: President Trump, Michael Bloomberg Release Dueling Super Bowl Ads

Big question #2: Which media markets are seeing the highest video ad spend per target for swing voters?

Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote) through early October according to Advertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media:
1) Erie, PA – $88.92
2) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $88.77
3) Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA – $66.35
4) Pittsburgh, PA – $62.89
5) Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, PA – $53.66
6) Average (60+ markets) – $18.72

Big question #3: Does this look different for swing voters likely to vote early? 

Top markets for spend/target (swing voters + likely to vote by mail) through early October:
1) Johnstown-Altoona, PA – $175.53
2) Las Vegas, NV – $110.93
3) Erie, PA – $110.64
4) Tucson, AZ – $100.93
5) Pittsburgh, PA – $96.35
6) Average (60+ markets) – $27.13

Why this matters: The political video ad market is huge and growing (CAGR) at a 25% rate compared to 5% for the general video ad market!

Presidential cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2016 – $2.5B
2) 2020P – $6.5B (↑ 164%)

Midterm cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 2014 – $1.7B
2) 2018 – $3.9B (↑ 128%)

Broadcast TV eCPM for independent voters during the 2018 election according to Advertising Analytics/Nielsen:
1) Orlando – $363
2) Tampa – $336
3) Phoenix – $217
4) Minneapolis – $120

PSA: Multiple markets have already surpassed a $1,000 eCPM in 2020!

Video: Political Campaigns Have Grown to Trust Viewer Data: Effectv’s Dan Sinagoga

More #1: 9 things you need to know about the billions of dollars gushing through Election 2020, including who’s winning in the Trump versus Biden main event.

More #2: Trump, Biden Campaigns Turn to Streaming Services to Reach Voters

More #3: Political ‘Grocery Games’: Trump, Biden Campaigns Target Swing Voters In TV Buys

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