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State of the Screens

How TV Tuned In More Ad Dollars: Direct Response and Digital Doubts

By August 15, 2019No Comments

Mo money: The big five broadcast networks grew their upfront commitments by 5%+ YoY.

Upfront ad spend by year for big five broadcast networks (YoY growth) according to Variety:
1) 2010-11 – $8.1B
2) 2011-12 – $8.8B (↑ 9%)
3) 2012-13 – $8.8B (↑ 0%)
4) 2013-14 – $8.6B (↓ 2%)
5) 2014-15 – $8.2B (↓ 5%)
6) 2015-16 – $8.0B (↓ 2%)
7) 2016-17 – $8.4B (↑ 5%)
8) 2017-18 – $8.8B (↑ 4%)
9) 2018-19 – $9.1B (↑ 4%)
10) 2019-20 – $9.6B (↑ 5%)

Upfront commitment by network (YoY growth):
1) 
NBC – $3.2B (↑ 8%)
2) CBS – $2.4B (↑ 5%)
3) ABC – $2.0B (↑ 22%)
4) Fox – $1.6B (↑ 8%)
5) The CW – $593M (↑ 5%)

FYI: C3 ratings were down 11% last year…

CPM change by network:
1) 
CBS – ↑ 14%
2) 
ABC – ↑ 14%
3) 
The CW – ↑ 14%
4) 
NBC – ↑ 13%
5) 
Fox – ↑ 12%

Estimate for CPM change (May 2019) according to Mediapost:
1) Networks – ↑ 15% – 20%
2) 
Media Buyers – ↑ 12% – 13%

The bottom line for upfront changes YoY:
1) Total spend – ↑ 5%
2) Ratings – ↓ 11%
3) AVG CPM $ – ↑ 12%+

Flashback: As TV Industry’s $20 Billion Week Starts, Signs That Streaming Isn’t King Yet

Upfront ad spend by year (% growth YoY) according to eMarketer:
1) 2008-09 – $16.8B (↑ 1%)
2) 2009-10 – $14.7B (↓ 13%)
3) 2010-11 – $16.6B (↑ 13%)
4) 2011-12 – $17.9B (↑ 8%)
5) 2012-13 – $18.7B (↑ 4%)
6) 2013-14 – $19.2B (↑ 3%)
7) 2014-15 – $18.4B (↓ 4%)
8) 2015-16 – $17.8B (↓ 3%)
9) 2016-17 – $18.6B (↑ 5%)
10) 2017-18 – $19.7B (↑ 6%)
11) 2018-19 – $20.8B (↑ 5%)
12) 2019-20 – $21.3B (↑ 2%)
13) 2020-21 – $21.6B (↑ 2%)

More #1: Traditional TV Ad Sales Aren’t Bad Even Amid Cord-Cutting

More #2: TV’s Upfront Market May Be More Complex Than Networks Expected

Michael Beach

Michael Beach

Michael Beach is the Chief Executive Officer of Cross Screen Media, a media analytics and software company that enables marketers to plan, activate, and measure CTV and linear TV at the local level. Michael is also the founder and editor of State of the Screens, a weekly newsletter focused on video advertising that is a must-read for thought leaders in the advertising industry. He has appeared in such publications as PBS Frontline, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Axios, CNBC and Bloomberg, and on NPR’s Planet Money podcast.

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